Morning everyone,

Eddie

Tax season is here and for those using Wealthsimple they offer tax filing service right inside the platform. All the tax slips you got from your investments are in the system so it makes it really easy to file. Deadline is April 30.

Remember if you don’t have Wealthsimple yet, you should. Get $25 when you download Wealthsimple using this Code: PRGS3Q

A post on X warns a global recession is coming:

Ken Griffin is one of the most successful hedge fund managers of our time, forbes estimates his net worth around $50 billion.

When he speaks, markets move.

So a comment like his quoted on X is bound to garner attention.

But there are a few things here that I will push back on and hopefully helps you reframe your thought process when you read similar headlines.

First, Ken Griffin didn’t say a recssion is coming.

He said if the Strait is closed for 6-12 months then one is likely.

That is a what we call a proverbial Big If.

The straight has been closed effectively since early March so we are about 6 weeks in. The US-Iran ceaseffire started last week after Trump said he would decimate an entire country into oblivion. As of today, ships are still barely moving through…

So yes, the situation is real. However. The statement “if it stays closed for 6 to 12 months” is conditional. Not a forecast.

So, a Billionaire hedge fund manager with better information than the rest of us and yet he still knows to couch his statement with the “if”.

Nobody, not Ray Dalio, not Jamie Dimon, not Ken Griffin, nor the guy with 1 million followers and a whale emoji knows what will happen next.

Whether it’s the price of oil, whether the ceasfire holds or whether we fall into world war three, what happens with near-term stock prices is a coin flip.

But long-term, stocks go up.

RAW RAW RAW 😠 “you used a condition, too, eddie!”

Yes, but it’s a much more investable, and empirically reliable condition!

While Griffin isn’t wrong persay - only hindsight will prove whether the “if, then” was true - every recssion in history has been followed an expansion. So too has every single stock market crash been followed by a higher high. Every time:

Imagine trying to tinker with your portfolio based on a conditional if, then statement that requires perfect timing on the up/down and more importantly, the way you express that position - long oil? short oil? long stocks? short stocks? cash? gold? etc.

It’s a recipe for (a) missing out entirely or (b) a complete trading disaster and one that Wall Street Titans hope for as you transfer money from your wallet to theirs.

Remember the playbook we always talk about:

You’ll do just fine.

Recently bid on a nice portfolio of industrial real estate that fit our general criteria and return metrics:

In the end, the deal was awarded to a large institutional fund that was able to acquire this portfolio as well as several other properties from the vendor all in one shot. Hard to compete with their (lower) cost of capital.

Despite continued pressure on overall real estate transaction activity in general, we continue to source high quality opportunities via our expert relationships across Western Canada.

If you’re interested in being part of future deals and you’re comfortable with $200k+ allocations, reply and I’ll include you on upcoming opportunities.

“In this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes.”

—Benajmin Franklin

For what are you most grateful?

For me, my family.

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