Hey friends, a quick chat about AI. There’s been a lot of talk about it lately given how quickly it’s advancing, and the potential implications.

Generally, there are two perspectives, the “it might destroy humanity” camp vs the “it will create abundance for all and you’ll be happy” camp.

No one can predict the eventual outcome, but, for what it’s worth, I’m somewhere closer to the good than the bad. Call me an optimist.

Regardless, the genie is out of the bottle. Even if the US frontier labs (ChatGPT, Claude, xAI) and/or the US/Western Governments band together to slow down/regulate/prevent development, it is hard to believe that other actors (ie China), will join that cause. Essentially the prisoners dilemma, where all parties say they’ll do one thing (slow down), but most likely do the other (advance).

Whatever the outcome, I believe it only raises the need and efforts required to build and sustain ourselves, personally, into a position of strength. From this Journal’s perspective, that is money, buying power, giving yourself options and choices.

From the perspective of using the tech itself, I think it’s quite important to use it. Not unlike email, it will likely become deeply rooted into our society. Don’t let yourself be the grandma of the 2000s who never figured out email.

Personally, I use it for a wide variety of things, non-comprehensive and in no particular order:

Home life: recipe and meal plans; translating Venezuelan investment proformas to English, and drafting properly translated responses; pricing out various boat sound systems and design elements; compiling annual bank transactions into useable, readable formats; writing letters to the Government of Canada for travel documentation so I could be sure it was done correctly and succinctly; planning trips, gear lists, etc.

Work life; loading raw data from hundreds of pages of documents into my models; underwriting / reviewing external investment proformas; transcribing calls into useable/actionable summaries; researching new markets, investments, stock markets, economic data; vibe coded a financial education app for kids.

For this newsletter, however, I want to be very clear with you. I never use it to write or drive thought. I get an idea, or a friend recommends one, and I hammer this thing out with my own ten fingers. I will use it for general research when required, spot check claims I make i.e confirm the total return on the S&P500 index vs my calculation (i maintain my own data sets and like to calculate my own figures). In a real pinch, I will speak the newsletter into my phone and have AI do nothing other than clean it up so I can hit send.

Anyway, given all the robot stuff out there, my dad suggested I mention this to you sometime.

So, there it is, thanks for the idea pops.

Hope you guys enjoy the fresh stuff each week.

Eddie

Checking in on a coffee bet made during the Trump Tarriff Tantrum ~18 months ago.

April 2025

Hey Eddie - Just a quick update, markets are rallying (surprise surprise) after he announced a 90 day pause... very happy I did not buy yet because there is very little chance this holds, and 125% on China will still cripple a lot of American industries. —Ryan

Hey James - Just for fun I’ll bet you a coffee that in 12 months the market is higher! —Eddie

Haha, will take you up on that, no way, 24 maybe, but 12 months from now I just don’t see it, too much uncertainty—Ryan

…

In April 2025 the S&P500 was at 5,237

In April 2026 the S&P500 was at 6,575

Up 25%

Today, the S&P500 is at 7,637.

Up 16% since April this year and a full 46% since the bet was made.

There will always be bad news.

Most of the time, that news is just noise:

Meanwhile, since January 1982, $10,000 invested in the SP500, has grown to $1,785,147 (assumes reinvested dividends).

Give a man a fish, feed him for a day.

Teach a man to fish, feed him for life.

—Anne Isabella Thackeray Ritchie

Teach a man to fish… that’s the idea behind Simply Investing. Open the right accounts, pick a simple ETF portfolio, automate contributions, and stay on track when the headlines are crazy. $197 CAD, lifetime access, full money-back if it’s not useful.

Simply Investing

As it relates to your investing, how do you deal with the bad news in the world?