Hey folks,

How to think about investing choices if you are a public sector worker with a guaranteed future retirement pension.

Also we show what owning the stock market actually looks like in practice.

Finally, what the hell is going on in BC?

Please share with family and friends

Personal Finance

Husband is a firefighter and wife is in government.

Mid-40s, working dependable jobs, kids are in high school, own their home and a bit of a mortgage that will be paid off in 10-15 years when kids are gone.

As public service employees, they get guaranteed pensions at retirement. So the question is, given the predictable retirement income they will both get, would I recommend dialing up the risk curve for their personal investments today, i.e. individual stock picks instead of broad market ETFs?

Here’s my thought process:

First, if you and your wife each get a guaranteed, inflation adjusted of $75,000 pension in retirement, so $150,000/yr combined, this is extremely valuable.

Why? Because it’s essentially the same as a family that’s built up a $3.75 million retirement portfolio (see discussion on the 4% Rule).

Without the couple having to save or invest another dime (other than their time for the next 20 years), they get $150,000 in pretax pension income.

And let’s not forget, in Canada, we get CPP and OAS, and roughly estimating their future combined amounts, they could be getting another $56,000/year.

For a total of $206,000/year combined annual income, before tax. Call it $150,000 after tax.

That’s $12,500/month free cash flow to spend in retirement.

So coming back to the question, given the guaranteed future incomes, should the couple take more risk and pick individual stocks?

I’d be hesitant of such things. Not an outright no; just hear me out.

As much as the allure of market beating returns are, they are statistically *extremely* hard to achieve. We know most ‘professional’ money managers underperform the market over time (see Warren Buffet's infamous bet), as do retail investors in even greater proportions. A few of them out-perform, but some lose it all.

The couple has $400,000 invested today across their various accounts, and they are able to contribute $7,000 each to their TFSAs each year, investing in the SP500.

Using a Future Value Calculator:

• If they earn 9% the next 20 years, $400,000 turns into $3,000,000.

• If they earn 11% buying individual stocks, $400,000 turns into $4,200,000.

• But if they screw it up, they might end up with much less, or worse, nothing.

Is it really worth it to try and attempt to beat the market with individual securities for the small chance they get $4.2 million, but a high chance they underperform or even lose it all?

Or is an 80% chance they get $3 million by using a low cost ETFs the better play?

Look, I love stocks. I think everyone should experience what it’s like to own a handful of individual stocks at some point. Maybe you’ve had some good trades over the years, earning 50% or more some of your positions.

But if you actually review your overall investment performance for last 10 years, has your portfolio quadrupled? If it hasn’t, then you underperformed (SP500 has returned 14% compounded annually the last 10 years, which is approximately a quadruple).

Will the next 10 years be a quadruple? Maybe, maybe not.

If the market suffers a drawn out bear market, can you really beat the market during dark, emotional times? Do you have an emotional edge when it comes to investing vs 99% of the other failed stock pickers? 50% of people will say yes, but only 1% of you will be right.

Remember Peloton? Blackberry? Blockbuster? Even Lululemon, the Vancouver company that created the fashion yoga industry, is down 60% in the last 4 years. Will it ascend to new heights again? Maybe, maybe not.

I don’t mean to sound untoward, I’m just putting it out there for you to think about and consider seriously. It’s your future you are talking about.

If you really have desire to be a stock picker portfolio, here’s what I’d suggest.

1. Read Peter Lynch’s One Up on Wall Street and all of Warren Buffet’s shareholder letters.

2. Build your shopping list while things are rosy. Hunt for the companies that you like now, while the stock market is roaring, not during a crash—you’ll rush and make mistakes. Start researching companies, learn how to read financial statements and rip apart a balance sheet. Then pull the trigger when you have a clear shot.

3. Lastly, designate maximum 10-15% of your networth to this endeavour. The rest should be in the mostly unbeatable long term low cost ETF.

If it goes well and become a skilled stock picker, great. If it doesn’t, you won’t be collecting food stamps in retirement.

Build wealth the way I actually do it 🧠
My ETF investing course walks you through the exact system I use—simple, low-cost, and built for real people with real lives. You’ll learn how to invest confidently without chasing headlines or picking stocks.

👉 Start learning now — save 10% with code SIMPLYINVEST →

🎁 Get $25 when you open a Wealthsimple account. Use my referral code: PRGS3Q

Stock Markets

Just to highlight the 10% return that is often talked about.

Below is picture of what owning stocks for 10 years actually looks like.

Over 89 years of rolling 10 year returns:

• 39 times you’ve had higher than 10% returns

• 37 times you’ve had between 5-10% returns

• 8 times you’ve had between 0-5% returns

• Only 5 times have been less than 0.

It’s not as “smooth” as people make it sound, but you are statistically playing a winning game as 84 of the 89 years result in positive years, but you need a long-term term view.

For people in their 20s, 30s, and early 40s, below is what owning stocks for 30 years looks like. Over 69 years of rolling 30 year returns:

• 56 times you’ve had higher than 10% returns

• 13 times you’ve had between 5-10% returns

• Never a return lower than 7%.

Hope this helps contextualize the importance of long term investing.

Real Estate

What the hell is going on in BC?

“BC Supreme Court Decision of Cowichan Tribes v Canada, 2025 BCSC 1490 made some every important decisions which could negatively affect the title to your property”

“For those whose property is in the area…the Court has declared aboriginal title to your property which may compromise the status and validity of your ownership”.

Property owners rights are in jeopardy, and BC may soon become un-investable.

1 Quote

“In the midst of chaos, there is always opportunity.”

Sun Tzu, Art of War

A Question

What other thoughts could you add to the pensioners story?